Research of Carbon Emission Reduction Potentials in the Yellow River Basin, Based on Cluster Analysis and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) Method

China has implemented many green transition policies to reach its carbon peak target, some of which do not consider the actual reduction pressures that localities can afford, thus lowering living standards residents and economic growth, makes process unsustainable. The Yellow River Basin plays an important role in China’s energy, food, manufacturing, ecological sectors. Thus, design region needs be modest efficient. Based on data 100 prefecture-level cities from 2006 2017, this paper uses K-means clustering divide potential into four types. Most cities’ potentials are low or medium, unsuitable for adopting a rapid transition. logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition results potential, we designed different carbon-control pathways: Shandong Henan should focus increasing investment technology, especially oxy-combustion technology; Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai could partially offset emissions through land use, land-use change forestry (LULUCF) activities; Sichuan Inner Mongolia increase their energy-use efficiency; Shaanxi Shanxi use finance complete upgrading local industries. above emission-reduction strategies actively pursued with high emission caution potential. This provides new cost-effective perspective control Basin.